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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.05 17:02:00 -
[1]
There are three easy fairly passive solutions.
1) Ignore isk farmers a bit longer than usual.
2) Increase frequency of hauler spawns. Incidentally, hauler spawns do appear in low sec and high sec (I think they do, been about a year since I last looked), probably as frequently as they do in 0.0. They also carry a lot less trit. Low sec spawns might carry a mil trit while high sec spawns might be 10-20k trit.
3) Bring back the insane industrialist mission, a huge trit producer in low sec. Powerful synergy with isk farmers.
Course that would undo the supply-side changes they've made over the past six months or so. I'd rather have the high priced trit.
The thing that really surprises me is how much veldspar and scordite is sitting right by Jita. I see 4.2 isk trit in Jita and a pile of veld roids two jumps over (the COSMOS constellation that has Itamo in it). Don't know how big they are, I haven't hit them with a survey scanner. I have an R&D alt chilling there who occasionally hits the roids for some trit.
Moving on. The demand coming from orcas doesn't seem that impressive. In Jita, I see averaged under 50 orcas traded each day. That's about 2-2.5 bil trit (at 47 mil trit per orca) a day which is about 20% of the trit traded in the Forge. That implies to me that supply of trit is fairly inelastic, which I guess isn't surprising.
Trit will have to get a lot higher to really pull the nonminers into mining which is really the only high sec activity where you can focus on trit extraction. Trit from other high sec sources is mixed in with other minerals (eg, mission loot) and while trit has gone up a lot, some of the other minerals (zydrine and megacyte in particular) have gone down considerably. I doubt there's much incentive to loot more or run drone missions.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.05 18:28:00 -
[2]
I see that the bid price on trit has dropped from 4.26 to 4.03 since this thread started and Jita volume is on track (I think) to beat the one year volume record for the Forge (which is 17,427,078,449 trit traded on July 22, 2008). Currently, we have almost 13.7 billion trit traded with over 5 hours left in the day.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.05 18:49:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Jacque Custeau
Originally by: Kwint Sommer
Yep. The influx of noobs plus the Orca's coming online will clean out high sec, the drone regions will probably see more activity and if this doesn't keep trit under 6 p/u we'll start seeing it being mined in 0.0. Not because it's directly profitable at 6-8 p/u but because there's a big convenience factor to having it in 0.0 already which adds at least 2 ISK p/u to it's value, in my mind anyways.
Thats not entirely true. Null sec right now is the opposite of empire. High ends are more expensive and the low ends are dirt cheap. Some of these NPC regions have trit for 2 isk and pyerite for 1.8. The reason? Hauler spawns. If you want to buy mega or zyd out there, expect to pay over 3k.
Thing is, how easy is it to turn that trit into spaceships? I imagine the places with large scale capital ship production don't have cheap trit. At a premium of 2 isk per trit, to grab say 30 million trit on a ship would be around 60 mil isk per trip. If you're carrying something more exciting like passive targeters, you can multiply that by a factor of 5. Sounds interesting so I wonder what the problem is. Probably the trit is at a station without manufacture and it's not worth the risk to move the trit to a station with manufacture (or a decent bid price).
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.05 20:35:00 -
[4]
Mr. Horizon, I just don't buy it. Sure there's a few resources like dysprosium moons that are saturated. But the key resource extracting activities: mining, missioning, exploration, and ratting are just fine.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.06 02:54:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Tasko Pal on 06/12/2008 02:54:13
Originally by: Mr Horizontal
I don't know... Back then deep dark pockets of 0.0 were absolutely empty. Now just about everywhere has something going on. There's almost always 1-5 in every 0.0 system I fly through. Places like Nonni used to have 50 people in it. Now it's almost permanently over 120 - it may just be me, but I do feel it's more overcrowded...
Either way I think we agree. If not more resources through more space, resources do need to be considered in a better way than now...
I don't get it. Why do you think 1-5 in a 0.0 system is overcrowded? Sounds vastly underutilized to me. And 120 in Nonni? So what? I find this argument frustrating since 1) it doesn't seem to be based on anything concrete, and 2) a lot of the overcrowding problem can be fixed by reducing lag.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.06 19:35:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Tasko Pal on 06/12/2008 19:35:56
Looky! Jita trit now down to spread of 3.93 bid, 3.95 ask. Yesterday's volume was 19.5 billion in the Forge, beats the last one year high by 2 billion trit. I wouldn't be surprised if this thread has sparked a long term drop in trit prices. In any case, I'm starting to think the CCP choice will be "Do nothing" because the problem is fixing itself.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.07 00:10:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Tsual
Originally by: Treelox
Lol I hope my thread alone didnt manipulate the market, cause if it did I wasnt in position to profit off it this weekend.
As casual miner on the other hand I did.
Has anyone cared to watch metropolis market spike out today? Could have sworn I've seen that behaviour before on similar occassions. *shrugs*
Could you describe the behavior a bit more accurately? Or smirk a little as you say, "you shoulda been there." 
Looking at it, I imagine that there was some cheap trit somewhere in empire. Yesterday, it got hauled to Jita.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.07 07:21:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Essence experienced the similar trends.
No worries Treelox, your thread and mine have absolutely no bearing on the market. 
Well, aside from the testimonials. Just looked at Heimatar (since I was there). Unbroken swing up in daily average trit price. Volume was kind of mediocre on 05/12/2008 too.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.09 23:19:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Syath
this thread is beginning to look erily familiar to the US auto industry bail out... people whining about the downturn of the economy inflated prices (oil-trit) and people asking (government CCP) to intervene?
Indeed, it has hit me hard. But not so hard that 35 billion dol^H^H^Hisk couldn't fix it.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.10 22:36:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Treelox
Edited by: Treelox on 10/12/2008 22:13:55
Originally by: Tamarana
The Best thing CCP can do for reducing the problem of tritanium is to introduce a new ship we could call "Chribba's Wet Dream", that is a capital version of the Hulk. 6-8 Modulated Strip Miner II at time, 20 K m3 of cargo or more.
Able to jump away, enough shield and armor and resistance to tank the rats, enough drone bay to kill the rats. And it need the skill "Capital Mining Ship".
Maybe, throw at it a better, bigger type of Strip Miner that only the capital Mining Ship can fit and that increase the quantity of mineral excavated.
Fixed it for ya
;)
Ship's no good without a DD-type device to mine everything on grid instantly. And it needs like 20 mil m3 of cargo so it can carry the contents of a 0.0 asteroid belt while it compresses the ore (cloaked of course with a covert ops cloak) and refines the loot from whatever victims happened to be on grid.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.12 09:38:00 -
[11]
I must admit I'm a bit distracted by the t2 drama to obsess on trit prices and the pile of zydrine I've been sitting on. I daytraded a little ferrogel (still no clue how it'll swing, just trading the spread). An interesting effect over the past few days was a substantial drop in orca prices in the Forge. My guess is people were selling off orcas in order to raise cash for t2/moon mineral speculation. The price has actually risen a little over the past half day or so. Probably means that people aren't sufficiently isk hungry any more.
Moving on, with the lower price and the above indication of temporary support just under 600 mil, it looks to me like trit prices will be supported at a more modest level for some time to come. As the price continues to decline, I imagine we'll start picking up some orders from people looking to round out their personal fleet. The closer the orca price gets to the insurance payout (or to the reprocessing cost), the more likely this is to occur, I think.
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